NFL Newsletter: Week Three Football Predictions 9-24-17
Cleveland Browns vs Indianapolis Colts Prediction 9/24/17
Not only do we find no less than ten teams favored away from home on the NFL card this week. 11 if Sam Bradford does not start (he won’t) and Tampa Bay assumes the favorite’s role (they did), but one of them is the Cleveland Browns.
The last time the Browns were favored away from home was 2014 at Jacksonville (they lost, 24-6). Cleveland is also just 1-5 SUATS following consecutive division games since 2010. Granted, the Colts are a mess (that’s why they’re a home dog here), but they are still 12-3 SU and 10-5 SU and ATS in Game Three of the season since 2002.
including 6-1 SUATS in non- division games. And should this line move toward the Colts, as we feel it will, the kicker is the fact that Indy is 22-2 SU and 16-7-1 ATS all-time as a pick or favorite of 5 or fewer points against AFC North opponents. Remember folks… Cleveland is 1-19 SU in its last 20 away games. That’s one-and-nineteen.
- INDIANAPOLIS over Cleveland by 8
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Chicago Bears Prediction 9/24/17
As much as we expect John Fox’s Bears to show signs of improvement this season, it’s not likely to come at this early stage of the campaign. Not when new players and coaches are getting together on the same page. And the fruits of their re-tooling likely won’t pay dividends until they move out of the opening month of the season after facing four winning foes in September that combined to go 47-26 last season.
It also doesn’t help their cause knowing that Chicago is 2-13 SU and 5-10 ATS as an underdog at home versus .500 or greater opponents. Nor the fact that the Bears are 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS in non-division games before facing the Packers. With the Steelers 10-4 SUATS in the first of consecutive away games following consecutive wins. And 8-1 ATS as favorites in the second of consecutive non-division games, we’re not falling for this Bear trap today.
- Pittsburgh over CHICAGO by 8
Miami Dolphins vs New York Jets Prediction 9/24/17
Sources in Vegas report the Dolphins players flew home for the first time following last week’s win in Los Angeles to check out the aftermath of Hurricane Irma. And could likely be distracted before journeying on to the Big Apple to face the Jets this week.
Given Miami’s 2-5 SUATS away mark in division games following an away game, that is not good news. Nor is the Flyboys’ 14-5 SU and 16-2-1 ATS record following consecutive losses in this series. True, the Jets are 0-9 ATS in home openers with division revenge, and 1-10 ATS as dogs following consecutive away games.
But the Well-Oiled Machine reports that NFL home teams in Game Three of the season are 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS against opponents playing their second game of the season. Including 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in division games.
- NEW YORK JETS over Miami by 1
Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills Prediction 9/24/17
Denver’s upset win over Dallas last week left a lot of fans stunned. Not me, though, as I realized that defense wins football games in this league. However, this is not Wade Phillips’ defense anymore. That’s good news, though, given the necessary off-season changes Denver made in tweaking the stop-unit.
It will pay off for the Broncos in the long run. Today may be another tale. The Broncos are 1-6 ATS the last seven games in this series, including 0-4 ATS the last four games here. They are also 1-8 ATS as favorites versus .500 or greater foes before facing the Raiders.
Sure, Buffalo is 0-7 SU and 1-6 ATS in its last seven games versus AFC West opponents, and Malinsky also notes that the inept Bills offense did not have a play of more than 15 yards against Carolina last week. But we don’t like the fact that away teams are just 3-7 ATS as favorites after defeating the Cowboys.
- BUFFALO over Denver by 3
New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers Prediction 9/24/17
The New Orleans Saints have opened up 0-2 four of the last five seasons. They failed to make the postseason all four times following each of the 0-2 starts. The one time they did not stumble 0-2 out of the gate (2013), they managed to make it to the playoffs.
That puts the current situation of the Aints, a team that has learned the hard way the value of a lacking defense, in a nutshell. Making matters worse, they have dropped four of the last five games in this series.
On the ATS side of things, though, it has been a different matter. The Saints are 6-1 ATS when winless from Game Three out since 2012. They are also 6-0 ATS following AFC opponents, and 5-0 ATS as underdogs in the second away game of the season. Not to mention 10-1 ATS away following a home game versus a foe off a home game.
And the Panthers oblige, going 0-4 ATS in this series the last two seasons, and 1-8 ATS home during the first quarter of the season versus division foes with revenge. And I didn’t even mention the fact that Carolina is 4-12 ATS at home following a home game since 2011. Including 4-6 SU and 0-10 ATS versus .500 or fewer opponents.
So while it appears the Panthers will likely have their way on the scoreboard, it will be no surprise to find the Saints taking down the cash.
- CAROLINA over New Orleans by 1
New York Giants vs Philadelphia Eagles Prediction 9/24/17
Things are not looking up the G-Men this season. That’s because since 2007 there were a total of 83 teams to begin the season 0-2. Only 10 of them went on to make the playoffs – 6 of them the past four seasons – including the Miami Dolphins last year. And as inept as the Giants have looked this season (regular and preseason), this becomes an ideal spot for a team that nobody wants this week.
Just imagine what happens once WRs Odell Beckham Jr. and Brandon Marshall remember how to catch a pass. For openers, not-so-Big Blue is 9-1-1 ATS away following a Monday night game when facing a .500 or greater opponent. Including 5-0 SUATS in division games.
Yes, Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS the last six games in this series, including 3-0 ATS the last three at home, but they are also only 3-6 SU and 2-6-1 ATS as a host in this series following a loss. But the Eagles are also 7-12 SU and 7-11-1 ATS in home-opening games, including 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS following an away game.
Plus, Philly is just 1-7 ATS at home before facing AFC opponents, and 2-12 ATS at home between two away games when facing a division foe. Regardless, Philly should win this one in a dog fight.
- PHILADELPHIA over New York Giants by 3
Oakland Raiders vs Washington Redskins Prediction 9/24/17
Last week before the Patriots roared back up off the mat; the then favorite to win Super Bowl 52 after the first week of the 2017 season was none other than the Oakland Raiders.
They were America’s team last season and following a 2-0 SUATS start this season they are at it once again. They’ll dress up as favorites in this cross-country Sunday night affair despite the fact the Black and Silver are 1-8 SU and 3-6 ATS versus NFC East opponents, including 0-3 SU and ATS following an Oakland win.
Raiders are also 5-11-1 ATS away before tackling Denver when facing .500 or less non-division opponents. Worse, Oakland is 0-7 ATS all-time away on Sunday nights following consecutive SUATS wins.
The Redskins counter at 4-1 ATS at home between away games, but just 1-6-1 ATS the last eight games in its second home game of the season.
- WASHINGTON over Oakland by 4
Cincinnati Bengals vs Green Bay Packers Prediction 9/24/17
As god-awful as the Bengals have looked to start the season (they and Seattle have yet to score a TD), I’m getting the big clothespin out and nervously applying it with plenty of trepidation.
With that, I’ll hit you with the big gun to start: Cincinnati head coach Marvin Lewis is 17-3-2 ATS in his career as an underdog versus NFC opponents. Including 10-0-1 ATS when his team owns a win percentage of less than .400. If that isn’t enough to keep the aroma of this play from permeating your senses. Then try the fact that the Bengals are 5-1 SUATS in games following two losses-exact.
Fearful of the Packers return home off Sunday night’s loss at Atlanta? Don’t be. Not with Green Bay’s gaudy 3-8 SU and 4-7 ATS record when playing without rest against AFC North opponents. And its 2-9 ATS mark in games when .500 or greater following consecutive non-division games.
It all has me taking more points with the Bengals than they last did in their season finale at Baltimore to close out the 2010 campaign.
FYI: Cincy is 8-0 ATS taking 8 or more points from non-division foes that are off a loss over the last 25 years.
- GREEN BAY over Cincinnati by 3
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