Hockey Handicapping Mistakes You’re Making Without Knowing It
In the sports betting business, there are many mistakes handicappers make on a daily basis. It’s evident that the NHL is the hardest sport to handicap but it’s a myth concerning profits in the NHL.
Concentrating on Past Trends
From my experience, trends do not play a deciding factor when handicapping hockey games. Hockey changes season by season, along with coaching changes, line-up changes and believe it or not, the changing of rules.
This is not to say all trends are garbage. For example, Tuesday’s in hockey, I call it “Over Tuesday”. I have yet to figure out why the majority of games on Tuesday’s go over the posted totals, but it does happen. It’s been happening for years and I recommend you take this into consideration.
Overlooking “Backup” Goaltenders
Yes, goaltenders do factor in but not all the time. In this sport, legitimate backup goaltenders want the starting job between the iron somewhere, if not the current team they support. Vegas concentrates on this part of the game entirely when determining the money line odds. And, most of the time, it benefits us hockey handicappers.
Here’s an example, Jared Coreau of the Detroit Red Wings. When starting netminder Jimmy Howard went down with another injury, Coreau stepped in. Despite having a low .907 save percentage, he supports a 5-1 record as of January 31st, 2017.
Coreau made his season debut on December 23rd, 2016 and Vegas adjusted their money line odds drastically when he was confirmed to start. He started on the road in Florida and skated off with the 4-3 win. Vegas opened the money line odds for Detroit at +127 then Jared Coreau was confirmed, the odds jumped to +155 (yes, the public did have a role in these odds shifting, but not entirely).
Jared Coreau is one of many gems that have and will fly under the radar every season. Whether it’s the actual goaltender stepping up or the defense tightening up in front of their goaltenders, you should never overlook a “backup” goaltender. Unless his name is, Michael Leighton.
Research, Research and Research
Remember, do your research on starting goaltenders. Even if it’s his NHL debut, you can still find the necessary stats needed. Check out Left Wing Lock, they provide the most up to date goaltending stats available.
I decided to keep this “list” short. No reason, but the above mentioned are the most crucial steps any handicapper should consider. From professional handicappers to the handicappers who bet for fun. If you have any do’s and don’ts when handicapping hockey, be sure to share them in the comments below!
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